I don’t know where I read it or heard it, but someone was talking about how we, as humans, think linearly. We look at past trends and forecast along a straight line. This isn’t in all cases, obviously, but in a lot of things, I think we do. But, change doesn’t happen that way. Populations, demand, growth, acceptance, … can all change exponentially or geometrically. Think viral videos.
The take away from this… plan and think how things in your business can change geometrically. If you only use linear forecasts, you will be surprised. If you plan that your forecasts will “turn the corner” and go viral, you will be prepared and not playing catch-up, slack jawed, with watery, wide eyes.
The hard part is “when.” Exponential growth does follow a pretty linear path until it does “turn the corner.”
If anyone knows where I might have heard or read this, please put it in the comments.